I think your right.

2008/2009 to 2012/2013 was an extraordinary run of cold/snowy winters for the majority of the UK (with a respite for 2011/2012) albeit a few places got unlucky and didn't have any severe snow/cold - Still given the relentless warm winters before and what's happened since 2013/2014 I think most people should feel very lucky to have experienced such a run of winters.

Who knows if we'll ever see a run like this again in our lifetimes...

 

Can only liaise with this .. although I do admit this whole topic is very much an 'IMBY' scenario. 

2008-09 and 2009-10 were both exceptional for me with both Winters most definitely meeting or beating Winters in the 70s/80s. 

2010-11 and 2012-13 were a bit less exceptional snow wise but temperature wise still fantastic. 

 

But in any given cold Winter whether it's one of the above mentioned or one from the 80s, the 60s or the 1800s, there will always be a few locations that missed out. Maybe 62/63 was an exception

Anything will be far better than the bore-fest benign weather during the of 2016/17 with constant model flips and downgrades. At least winter 2014/15 and 2015/16 we had squally hailstorms, soft hail and sleet showers and more. What I notice is that our Decembers are becoming milder and milder beit dry or wetter than average the December month has always been milder than average and I can't remember the last cold Christmas Day we had. - Perhaps 2010. We are well over -due a cold December or wintry Christmas period.

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Steady Steve, this is how it all starts, you begin by thinking maybe I'm better off as a mildly and the next thing you know you're scanning the charts for a southerly feed in January whilst wetting your pants over a cheeky damp grey grizzly 16c in mid December.  It's not somewhere anyone wants you to go mate - step back from the mild side. You know there's always help out there if you need it, we're a supportive community - Bjorli can live stream through the winter if we get another 1989 and there's always the Stelvio pass Web Cam if you need a quick fix. Stay true - winter is coming.

😂

Classic. At various points in my life I've had therapy for conditions, but there is no treatment that I know of for the often deabilitating affliction known amongst weather geeks as 'compulsive winter model watching' 😎

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😂

Classic. At various points in my life I've had therapy for conditions, but there is no treatment that I know of for the often deabilitating affliction known amongst weather geeks as 'compulsive winter model watching' 😎

Theres one.......... Relocation Program. 

2008/09 to 2012/13 was not a snowy period here just average. 2009/10 was a very snowy winter of the sort you would expect once every five years. This was offset by the horrendous 2011/12 which again would be a 1 in 5 year event.

This leaves 2008/09 which was average and 2010/11 which was very snowy before Christmas and almost snowless afterwards. 2012/13 was utter dross for most of the city. I have never seen a winter with such a sharp divide between the outskirts where it was reasonably snowy, in January at least, and the bulk of the City which had very little. One day I had measured 11cm here but the other side of the A96 ring road, just a mile away there was nothing at all.

Since then it has been unspeakably bad. The only remotely decent snow I have seen in five years was at Braemar in February 2016. Last winter was so dire that even inland areas hardly got anything. 

 

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I'd certainly be up for a Winter like 2000-2001 or 2003-2004 that's for sure

But everything is sort of 'in my back yard' ... there's so little Winters to choose from which brought snow to every back yard in the country that's for sure 

 

Someone mentioned we're long overdue a cold December/festive period - there was some sort of Northerly in 2014 though around 26th December off top of my head which was a fairly localized event around central/northern parts. 

2008/09 to 2012/13 was not a snowy period here just average. 2009/10 was a very snowy winter of the sort you would expect once every five years. This was offset by the horrendous 2011/12 which again would be a 1 in 5 year event.

This leaves 2008/09 which was average and 2010/11 which was very snowy before Christmas and almost snowless afterwards. 2012/13 was utter dross for most of the city. I have never seen a winter with such a sharp divide between the outskirts where it was reasonably snowy, in January at least, and the bulk of the City which had very little. One day I had measured 11cm here but the other side of the A96 ring road, just a mile away there was nothing at all.

Since then it has been unspeakably bad. The only remotely decent snow I have seen in five years was at Braemar in February 2016. Last winter was so dire that even inland areas hardly got anything. 

 

December 2010 was the last proper northerly here. Pathetic for something which used to happen most years

The Weather Company (formally WSI) going for something colder for the UK and western Europe this year

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-expects-a-warm-and-dry-fall-for-northern-eastern-europe

 

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What do you make of this?

http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/store-2018-winter-europe-prediction 

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What do you make of this?

http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/store-2018-winter-europe-prediction

I'll undercut them and offer a detailed winter forecast for $8, and it'll be just as accurate

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Theres one.......... Relocation Program. 

Seconded, and carried out

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I think your right.

2008/2009 to 2012/2013 was an extraordinary run of cold/snowy winters for the majority of the UK (with a respite for 2011/2012) albeit a few places got unlucky and didn't have any severe snow/cold - Still given the relentless warm winters before and what's happened since 2013/2014 I think most people should feel very lucky to have experienced such a run of winters.

Who knows if we'll ever see a run like this again in our lifetimes...

Well clearly this is acknowledgement that things really have changed, whilst the period was decent for the modern era, it wasn't as good as 1978-87 and I'm sure veterans wouldn't see it as good as (generally) the forties through to the end of the sixties. 

 

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This compilation of snow statistics for the UK since 1875 should give forum members something to base their assertions on

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

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This compilation of snow statistics for the UK since 1875 should give forum members something to base their assertions on

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

Great post DW. shows lots of data for analysis.Noticed that the  70's and 90's had high numbers of "little snow"  winters.I,m hoping that the approaching solar minimum around 2020 will give us a repeat performance of last solar minimum heavy snows of 2009/10 and 2010/11.

To summarise:

The most recent 30 years:
1 very snowy
2 snowy
7 average
20 little

The previous 30 years
2 very snowy
8 snowy
8 average
12 little

Frankly you'd need to have your head stuck in the sand to say nothing has changed. However the danger is making long term extrapolations based on a short time series.

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Well clearly this is acknowledgement that things really have changed, whilst the period was decent for the modern era, it wasn't as good as 1978-87 and I'm sure veterans wouldn't see it as good as (generally) the forties through to the end of the sixties.  

 

So essentially you're plucking from history a 9-year period of predominantly good winters, and comparing subsequent winters to his, in order to try to 'prove' your hypothesis.

This ignores that immediately predating that 9-year spell was a run of mostly poor winters. And looking back over even just a century previous, there have been similar periods of mostly milder winters.

Because that's consistent with the UK climate, which brings spells of predominantly mild winters interspersed with the odd good winter, and spells of predominantly colder winters interspersed with milder ones.

In other words, your 'modern winter' claims and the inference that we're all doomed to suffer crap winters from here on in, are just bobbins. It's just a notion you hit upon that you can use to wind people up with.

 

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Doc, my perception was that the leaves were turning earlier this year too. I concluded this was due to the long autumn we have already had (since June)...

There was a very knowledgeable poster on here last year (can't remember who), who suspected the last run of mild winters was partly due to the SSTs off the eastern seaboard of North America. I couldn't tell you much about it but the post was very in-depth and analytical and I'd love to read more about it now we're getting close to silly season again. 

Something about an anomalous cold "blob"? Sorry I can't be more specific. Somebody is bound to remember what I'm referring to! :-) 

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To summarise:

The most recent 30 years:
1 very snowy
2 snowy
7 average
20 little

The previous 30 years
2 very snowy
8 snowy
8 average
12 little

Frankly you'd need to have your head stuck in the sand to say nothing has changed. However the danger is making long term extrapolations based on a short time series.

No one argues with that but you’re using a tiny sample of years compared to the vast historical datasets available, so going off that if the next 30 buck the trend with the projected Grand Solar Minimum and switch in the AMO what do we calll that?

There was a very knowledgeable poster on here last year (can't remember who), who suspected the last run of mild winters was partly due to the SSTs off the eastern seaboard of North America. I couldn't tell you much about it but the post was very in-depth and analytical and I'd love to read more about it now we're getting close to silly season again. 

Something about an anomalous cold "blob"? Sorry I can't be more specific. Somebody is bound to remember what I'm referring to! :-) 

Our own Gav has mentioned this on his winter updates from last year onwards. 😁